Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: September 28th.
There is no doubt about it, this is a huge fight. Errol Spence Jr. is recognized as one of the best across all weight divisions, also on top of this, when you consider the public backing of Spence by Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and that his opponent Shawn Porter has the public recognition from being watched by 3.4 million people versus Keith Thurman on CBS and his victory over the popular Danny Garcia. You can see that this fight is one of the years top matches both from a boxing and public interest standpoint.
Betting Preview – The Story of the Fight
Ok, so when we look into what is likely to happen many people are suggesting that Porter will pressure Spence. However, the recent evidence shows that this is unlikely to happen.
Over his last two fights, Porter seems to be looking to change his style with a view to challenging the top competitors in the division like Spence and Crawford. The very top fighters can and will counter the marauding physical style of Porter’s earlier fights. As a result, he needs to change to some degree to be in with a chance.
Therefore, expect Porter to box and be very tactical in his approach.
Spence will be prepared and you would think that his game plan will depend on what Spence brings to the table. No doubt he will be prepared for a pressure approach or a more nuanced version of Porter.
Shawn Porter Will Set The Tone of The Fight
The approach Porter takes in this fight will set the tone. As mentioned earlier, Spence will be prepared for the two types of Porter that can show up. He will also know that Porter is dangerous and has considerable power. As a result, he can rely on the fact that he is the better boxer and he has a height and reach advantage.
Comparing the two fighters you would believe that the outside game should be Spence’s. Some say that Porter owns the inside game but its hard to justify this on closer inspection.
Trying to get on the inside and pressure will expose Porter. Therefore, a more conservative strategy is required. Patience is needed. Porter will be looking to keep it close and get a knockdown for a 10-8 round at some stage.
Spence v Porter Prediction
Lets look at the most likely outcome. Looking at Spence’s last fight against the very talented but undersized (came up two weight divisions) Mikey Garcia and the last two outings from Porter where he showed a different side to his game, it is likely that the fight will go the distance.
However, Spence should take it by UD. Something like 116-112.
It will be one for the boxing purists but Porter will give a better showing than many are predicting.
Remember, ever since the Garcia fight he has been evolving. However, Spence is the taller man with the longer reach. He will just have too much for Porter in the end.
Spence to win is -715 at time of writing.