Week Four is an important week.
It generally is the time of the season where the middle separates. The better teams vault towards contention, while the lesser teams show their colors.
If you’re a fan of a team on the bubble, your Monday is going to feel significantly different to that of your colleagues if things go wrong from here.
My take is usually to back the high-quality teams to cover in week four as it’s circled by coaches every single year.
With that in mind, let’s find some spreads to back.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6) @ Detroit Lions: -112
Sunday 29th September, 13:00
It’s coming – when people say that the Chiefs are the Super Bowl favourites.
After the Patriots lost Isaiah Wynn, there’s a weakness on that line which may hand the advantage to Kansas City, but until the Chiefs defeat a top-end team on the road, nobody will want to be the first to pull the trigger.
Here, I’ll do it for you – Pat Mahomes will retire with every passing record known to man, and even some that’ll be invented after he puts down his helmet.
Detroit have a shutdown corner in Darius Slay. They’ve also got a franchise quarterback and a solid receiving corps.
What they don’t have is an offensive line that’s healthy – and I can’t help but think that dome will be the setting for their defence to show they can carry their load this year.
Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Chicago Bears: -102
Sunday 29th September, 16:25
If you force Mitch Trubisky to be a quarterback, he will hand you the game.
But what a team needs in order to do that to affect, is be certain that they can neutralise Khalil Mack. This involves running the ball either away from him or between the tackles.
Minnesota are the team who have had the most success in this field thus far. Dalvin Cook is a runaway train and the Bears corners, while superb in coverage, leave a lot to be desired when it comes to open-field tackling.
I can see the screen game being utilised more than it has been to this point. A Bears defence, fresh off a monster performance against the Redskins, is now going to be over-keen in their rush lanes, and won’t account for anything outside the tackle box.
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: -109
Sunday 29th September, 16:05
There isn’t a better line for bettors this week than Russell Wilson’s Hawks going into the desert – one of their shorter trips in the league – only having to overcome a five-point deficit.
Kyler Murray is still a project quarterback and Seattle’s defence is designed and disciplined in containing mobile quarterbacks. After all, they see it every day in practice with Russell himself.
David Johnson does not match up well against these linebackers, nor does their spread formation -as Seattle can comfortably dish out Cover 3 in order to ensure Murray can only dunk underneath.
If that pocket gets messy on the interior, he’ll panic and make the mistakes you associate with a quarterback whose ability to identify defences is still developing.