So, now that we’ve all firmly sat down to assess the opening weekend of the NFL season, I presume we’ve all made completely rational observations and not jumped to any bizarre conclusions – correct?
Well, don’t worry. You’re not the only ones. Oddsmakers generally do the same, and the days between opening weekend and the following Sunday is usually a battle of wits between us, as to who can stumble upon the most logic while dismissing their go-to, default hot takes.
For me, this is the best weekend of the season to have a wager, simply because you should look at trends rather than execution. If you’re right 50% of the time, and you weren’t last week, well – chances are that you’re in the money now.
Let’s take a look at the three best positions to take on for week two.
New York Giants (+5.5) @ Chicago Bears: -109
I don’t believe I can be in the minority when I suggest that Daniel Jones played very well against what I believe to be the best defensive unit in the NFL.
Massively struggling with zone coverages last year, Jones matured and picked apart the routes that beat particularly schemes and if not for the interception in the redzone, it could have been an entirely different result.
My area of concern does land in the front five from a run blocking perspective, though. While that level of intensity won’t be there from the Bears front four – at least not to the same blistering level – the front five looked clueless when attempting to open gaps for Saquon Barkley.
Jason Garrett, the man in charge of prolonging Zeke Elliott’s career surely went back to the chalkboard midweek to find some different run schemes for his star back.
Chicago, meanwhile, were functional. If you believe Trubisky is actually a functional quarterback in this league, you can stop reading now – and his one performance a year where you think you might have something is out the window already.
The Giants could win this game outright, so 5.5 points is plenty for me. The Giants are (-109) against the spread here at Canplay.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (+8.5): -109
The Chargers and the Chiefs have faced off six times under the stewardship of Anthony Lynn, in which in his Bolts are 1-5.
But more importantly, the Chargers are 2-17 in turnover differential. Turning the ball over 17 times in six games is criminal, let alone having a net deficit of 15.
In Tyrod Taylor, Los Angeles bring something new: discipline and taking care of the football. The familiarity between the two means there’s usually very few wrinkles. Maybe for once, the element of surprise is in favour of the Chargers as they run a totally new offence. Not to mention the defence, who were probably only second to Pittsburgh in their opening week display.
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks (-4): -105
This pits the best overall team performance from the opening weekend against the most overrated performance.
Yes, New England will take time to adjust of course under Cam Newton, but their entire offence was conducted through a mesh point. To counter a mesh point, you need to have a box safety and very disciplined contain coverage behind it.
The arrival of Jamal Adams gives Seattle exactly that, while they’re frequently the most disciplined of defensive units in the league.
Bill and his Patriots weren’t bad in the opener, but they’re about to be exposed by the, in my mind, early favourites for the NFC. The Patriots are (-105) to win against the spread of -4 here at Canplay.