Week 17 is the most difficult week to land some big bets in the entire NFL season. The primary reason for this because it’s hard to analyse just how motivated the teams are.
On one hand, you have the likes of the Baltimore Ravens who are guaranteed home-field advantage through the playoffs now, while the likes of the Los Angeles Chargers have zero motivation to go to Kansas City and win, given they could lose out on a potential replacement for Philip Rivers.
As Walter White once famously said to his brother-in-law Hank Schrader in Breaking Bad, it’s perhaps best practice to ‘tread lightly’ in the final week of the NFL regular season.
New England Patriots (-16) @ Miami Dolphins: -117
Sunday 29th December 1PM
So, let’s factor in a couple of things here.
The Miami Dolphins have been resurgent this season. If they were 0-15 coming into this like most presumed, I’m sure there would have been a point to prove.
But Devante Parker has already shown enough to get his contract extension, and that’s about where the positives end. It would be hilarious that, despite being the longest-running joke in the NFL all season despite being considerably better than the Cincinnati Bengals, for them to fall out of a top-five pick because they performed above themselves, yet still have the most holes in the entire depth chart of any side.
Then there’s the fact that the Patriots still have something to play for. A win here is enough to guarantee a first-round bye and that’s the coveted prize for Bill Belichick at this moment in time. And you know what happens when New England face off against AFC East opposition with something on the line.
It’s going to be a long afternoon for many Dolphins fans in attendance. I might even suggest staying at home.
Back the Pats with CanPlay.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-12.5): -109
Sunday 29th December 1PM
If Matt Patricia thinks he can stroll into Lambeau Field and play man coverage against Aaron Rodgers, he’s obviously been reading David and Goliath over the holiday period.
And this Lions unit doesn’t have a slingshot.
The NFC can still go through Wisconsin. The maths is simple – Green Bay need to win and they need Seattle to win in San Francisco. Both of these are possible and Matt LaFleur will attack this porous Detroit D with everything he has. Rodgers is excellent against zone, but his biggest strength is moving pieces around to take advantage of man-v-man mismatches.
Say a prayer for Detroit here.
Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: -117
29th December 2019 8:20PM
This one’s the easiest pick of the lot.
The reason it’s the easiest pick of the lot is because there is no chance this game ends with more than a field goal between the teams.
They both play the same defence and they know the schemes like the backs of their hands. Honestly, go watch the last game between the two. Constant coaching adjustments are required here and it’ll be tit-for-tat until one final score.
Bet on the Seahawks to win with CanPlay.