Newcastle United v Manchester City, Saturday 30th November 7.30am
In the past ten years, Newcastle United have lost 16 times out of 18 in the league to Manchester City. There was one tie. The one positive for Steve Bruce’s side is that their only victory in that time was in January this year, when a late Matt Ritchie penalty dealt Pep Guardiola’s team a title blow.
City went on to recover, of course, while a lot has changed at St James’ Park in the interim. Bruce has replaced Rafa Benitez, while the other Toon goalscorer that day, Salomon Rondon, has joined his former boss in China.
It’s arguable that the Venezuelan striker’s absence is the most keenly felt. Newcastle have more Premier League points than they did at the same stage last season, but only one team have scored fewer goals.
Rondon’s replacement, Joelinton, has failed to sparkle and has notched just one league goal. Miguel Almiron and Allan Saint-Maximin have yet to get off the mark, not a great return for a combined spend of almost £80 million on the front trio.
We fancy City to make it 17 wins from 19 against Saturday’s hosts and an away win to zero comes in at -110. The visitors haven’t been blowing away teams on the road, with a tally of eight goals from their last four away games. We like the look of a 2-0 City win at +625 with CanPlay.
City will miss the injured Sergio Aguero, but Newcastle certainly won’t. The Argentine has scored a whopping ten goals in his last six league games against The Magpies. In his absence, Gabriel Jesus should step up to the plate and the Brazilian striker is +260 to score first and -140 to net anytime.
Liverpool v Brighton, Saturday 30th November 10.00am
On paper, this looks like a formality for the league leaders. However, it took a sole Mo Salah strike in both their meetings last season for Liverpool to earn maximum points. Another 1-0 win for Jurgen Klopp’s side on Saturday can be backed at +725, while the Egyptian forward is +300 to net the opener at Anfield and -110 to score anytime.
Brighton certainly gave a better account of themselves in the 2018/19 campaign than in the previous season’s fixtures, when they suffered two four-goal margin defeats to The Reds. Another Livepool win by four goals or more can be backed at +330 with CanPlay.
However, we fancy something in between. Wednesday’s Champions League draw against Napoli marked the eleventh game in a row in which the league leaders have conceded in. Meanwhile, Graham Potter’s side have scored in five of their last six domestic matches. Both teams to score here is +105 and +150 when combined with a home win.
Six of the Premier League favourites’ last seven league wins were won by a one-goal margin – strangely, the outlier was against Manchester City – and another win by a goal is decent value here at +245. Brighton’s last game on the road ended in a 3-1 defeat at Manchester United and we fancy a similar score-line here at +1075.