Unless you’re a turkey or someone who gets nervous by drunken relatives, Thanksgiving is your favourite time of year as an NFL fan.

There’s many elements that make it unique – the oversized poultry; the cranberry sauce; the stuffing that contains countless essences of things you won’t question; quality family time with those close to you; fond reflection on life’s positives; lying on the couch after overindulgence on all of the above – and perhaps even more important than the sum of all of the above – three NFL games on a Thursday.

Some things you need to be thankful for more than others – that’s all I’m saying.

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There was a very brief spell on Sunday night where the collective NFL fanbase sat up slightly straighter in their usual Redzone-worn armchairs.

Tom Brady was struggling to throw the ball to anyone. He was resorting to dunk-offs and lacked velocity, spiral and trademark trajectory.

It’s been fifteen years since anyone, especially AFC team-supporting fans could dream of landing in a Super Bowl without having to face the Patriots in a bitterly-cold Foxboro only to be sent packing after a first quarter blitz that destroyed your soul.

But then Julian Edelman threw a touchdown pass and we were back to square one.

Let’s see what other false hope we can be handed in Week 12. Joy.

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You can achieve a lot in ten weeks. It’s two and a half months. It’s 0.25% of the average male’s lifetime.

Think about what you were doing this day, ten weeks ago – and it seems like an age ago, doesn’t it? That’s how long it took for a decent game of football this season.

The Seahawks and the Niners went at it on Monday Night Football, resulting in a last-second field goal to steal it from Kyle Shanahan and co.

And all was right with the league again – even Colin Kaepernick has a tryout this weekend. Perhaps things are looking up.

Let’s approach Week 11 with some optimism and try nab some cash.

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There have been some truly remarkable shocks in world sport to this point – the Undertaker losing to Brock Lesnar at Wrestlemania 30, the Arsenal invincibles’ 49-game unbeaten run and Phil Mickelson falling out of the Top 50 for the first time in his career.

But nothing compared to the beatdown taken by the then 8-0 New England Patriots in Baltimore last week. My goodness.

Brady, with Mohamed Sanu in tow, rocked up to Maryland, expecting to steamroll yet another inexperienced quarterback – but they were sent back to Foxboro with their legs between their tails in despair.

It’s going to take an absolute masterstroke on defence to slow down Jackson and co. Perhaps Week 10 can give us some insight into just who that might be.

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We’re halfway through the NFL season and there’s always one main storyline to take out of this – that one three-win team is probably making the postseason.

Usually by Week 9, we can tell who that is. Right now, the some the likely contenders include the Chargers, Raiders, Steelers, Lions and Bears.

That’s a lot of real quality that’s going to miss out on the postseason, but which one of them will make the leap in the second half of the season to reconfirm the storyline that gets brought up every single year?

Well, there’s only one way to find out.

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Let me tell you a little story about a franchise called the Los Angeles Chargers. Perhaps more important than the actual outcome of the Super Bowl is the emotional support given to the fans of the Bolts, as they frequently find incredible ways to win.

This week may mark the midway point of this particular NFL season, but it feels like the Chargers are in one continuous cycle of pain when it comes to results.

They found yet another way to lose this week – fumbling on the one-yard line when it looked for everything that they were going to run out winners.

Ah, the NFL.

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There aren’t too many things I love more than this sport.

But there was a brief moment on Sunday evening where I contemplated walking away from it. No, this isn’t an Andrew Luck memoir, this was me, on my sofa, watching Miami and Washington.

While that alone would have been enough for me to lose faith, it was due to a particular passage of play, more specifically.

Ryan Fitzpatrick had just thrown a touchdown pass with six seconds remaining. I had no doubt that, given momentum, Miami were an extra point away from an eventual overtime win.

See, I’m addicted to logic. The world needs to make sense. For once, I thought that was beyond me briefly. Until Brian Flores went for two and threw a flanker screen.

Phew. Now for Week 7. [Read more…]

The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in football, while Kyle Allen looks set to become a bigger star than Cam Newton.

Five weeks is a long time, but it’s a very long time in football. It’s also particularly relevant to the playoff hunt for one very specific reason – only one team has ever gone 0-4 and made the playoffs.

If you’ve gone 0-5 – I’m looking at you Washington and Miami – then I’m afraid you’re already looking ahead to the draft.

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When Andrew Luck opened the NFL season a couple of weeks early to announce his retirement, it was mainly met with appreciation of someone’s intellectual prioritisation of money and health.
There were some naysayers, namely a band of Indy fans who felt the terms of the departure were unfair. Luck’s struggles were largely unseen by the majority and nobody knows the depth of his struggles.

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Week Four is an important week.

It generally is the time of the season where the middle separates. The better teams vault towards contention, while the lesser teams show their colors.

If you’re a fan of a team on the bubble, your Monday is going to feel significantly different to that of your colleagues if things go wrong from here.

My take is usually to back the high-quality teams to cover in week four as it’s circled by coaches every single year.

With that in mind, let’s find some spreads to back. [Read more…]

As Bob Dylan once famously sang, the quarterbacks, they are a-changin’. I think.

What once was is no more and the league is moving on. This week’s selections are all headed by quarterbacks under the age of 27 and for good reason.

This is mere coincidence of course, as the reasons for these selections is far more articulate, I promise.

Tennessee (-1.5) @ Jacksonville: -112

Thursday 19th September, 8:20PM 

These early lines can be funny. I don’t really understand how Tennessee can be three-point favourites to turn over Indianapolis, then be single-point favourites to beat Jacksonville.

Now, there’s the six point swing that you allow for home/road disparity, but even then, the point-and-a-half between the Jags and Colts seems farcical.

The way in which Tennessee lost last week can easily concern, and I understand where it comes from, but Henry does his best work outside the tackles, and this is where Jacksonville can be caught out.

While the Titans are weak in pass protection right now, they’ll benefit from a Jags defence that’s got to be wary of the run-option with Mariota. There’s little to no safety help you need to be afraid of, and Myles Jack has lost a step from this time last year.

Tennessee leave Florida with the win.

BET: Tennessee Titans (-1.5) @ -112

Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco (-6.5): -108

Sunday 21st September, 4:25PM

The 49ers are the surprise of the season thus far. Well, the good surprise anyway.

Their defence is a top-six unit, they’ve got a young, gifted quarterback who’s not chasing a contract and they’re now playing at home in September.

A cross-country flight is a good enough reason to hand a team a four-point advantage in my book, especially an east coast team coming to California.

But the heat will be a factor here, as will the fact the entire Steelers offence is based around Ben’s audibles and weird knack of throwing balls in areas you would never design.

Mason Rudolph isn’t filling boots, he’s filling craters. And he’s about to be found out by a rabid group in Santa Clara.

BET: San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) @ -108

Baltimore @ Kansas City (-7): -105

Sunday 21st September, 1PM

This is the one that most people will scoff at.

But the point remains – there isn’t a single throw that Mahomes can’t make, and that the strength of this Ravens defence is in their heavy personnel. Keeping them in base defence or going up against 12 personnel is not going to benefit you.

However, if you test their cornerback depth, they’ll give up points.

This is why personnel groupings need to be analysed more and more as teams grow into their schemes. Predictability is what kills you and the Chiefs’ offensive playbook has more niche plays than any other in football.

Baltimore’s does not, and the one thing that Lamar Jackson hasn’t faced yet is an interior pass rush. There is no better AFC interior defender than the animal that is Chris Jones.

Once they play contain on the back-end, the Ravens simply don’t have the talent at receiver to get separation.

A touchdown in the difference is slightly underestimating this Chiefs unit and I’m happy to be on board.

BET: Kansas City Chiefs (-7) @ -105