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NFL: Week 3 Betting Preview

September 23, 2020 by Carlo.Scappaticci

Week two is in the books and some of the Super Bowl betting favourites have already laid down a marker for the season. The Chiefs, Ravens, Packers, Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams have all impressed with 2-0 starts. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, former partners now rivals, have led their franchises to difficult 1-1 starts although it wouldn’t be wise to rule either the Patriots or the Buccaneers out at this early stage of the season.

The Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens is the standout fixture of this week’s schedule although there is plenty of other top games on offer.

Let’s take a look at this week’s games.

[Read more…]

NFL: Week 2 Betting Preview

September 17, 2020 by Carlo.Scappaticci

So, now that we’ve all firmly sat down to assess the opening weekend of the NFL season, I presume we’ve all made completely rational observations and not jumped to any bizarre conclusions – correct?

Well, don’t worry. You’re not the only ones. Oddsmakers generally do the same, and the days between opening weekend and the following Sunday is usually a battle of wits between us, as to who can stumble upon the most logic while dismissing their go-to, default hot takes.

For me, this is the best weekend of the season to have a wager, simply because you should look at trends rather than execution. If you’re right 50% of the time, and you weren’t last week, well – chances are that you’re in the money now.

Let’s take a look at the three best positions to take on for week two.

[Read more…]

NFL Season Preview

September 10, 2020 by Carlo.Scappaticci

The NFL season is coming back this weekend. As per normal the SuperBowl Champions will kick off the season start. The Kansas City Chiefs will play the Houston Texans on Thursday night at 7 p.m. As we have seen several other American sports had to change their seasons due to the Covid-19 virus. Luckily, the NFL season is able to press ahead without any changes in their schedule so far. This season might make it easier for teams on the road as like most other sports there will be no fans at any of the games. Check out our Power Rankings to start out the NFL season preview.

[Read more…]

Rob Gronkowski joins Tom Brady at the Buccaneers

April 22, 2020 by Carlo.Scappaticci

It was inevitable to see some players to jump over to join the Buccaneers once Tom Brady made his announcement. There were some rumours about who was going to join but not many predicted the All-Pro to sign up with his former teammate.

Tight End Rob Gronkowski gets traded to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After a stint in the World Wrestling Entertainment inc (WWE) “Gronk” wanted to come back to play in the NFL. Apparently the TE only wanted to come out of retirement in order to continue playing with Tom Brady. The trade gives the Patriots a 4th round pick while Tampa Bay receive a 7th round pick. Apparently, the tight end has already started to put on weight for his return to the NFL.

There is no doubt that two former New England elites will completely change the look of the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has not looked like challenging for anything in recent years. The vast experience and elite mentality between Brady and “Gronk” is bound to have a positive impact on the current and future roster of Tampa Bay.

The Patriots had already written off the tight end as being an asset to the team. Will a 4th round draft pick be able to make up for such a loss? It is extremely unlikely that 4th round pick will see a successor anywhere near the quality of Tom Brady or Rob Gronkowski. Although the Patriots have a record of late picks being superstars, evident by the fact that Brady was 199th draft pick back in 2000. There will not be many more 6th round NFL picks that are going to be Hall of Famers.

How will it affect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

The odds for Tampa Bay to win the Superbowl already received a big cut once Tom Brady had joined their roster. After adding another big name with “Gronk” to the roster, the Buccaneers have become the 4th favourites at (+1100) to win the Superbowl. The 31-year-old tight end had his lowest yards per catch and yards per target in 2018. He averaged 14.5 yards per catch and 9.5 yards per target. These were his lowest numbers since 2015.

It is important to keep in mind that he was playing alongside Julien Edelmenn, Josh Gordan and Philip Dorsett. Now he is going to have Godwin and Evans beside his who are more can capable of taking double teams off his hands. Tampa Bay are building a very powerful looking offense and if they can improve their defence from the draft or through trades, they could make a solid run at the Superbowl.

A big factor for whether the Buccaneers can win the division or Superbowl will all depend on whether they can keep their main players healthy. They are competing in a tough division and it won’t be a walk in the park. Tom Brady certainly has a lot of firepower to deal with and it going to take apart several defences. Unlike the Ravens from last season, Brady and Gronk can take the winning mentality throughout the whole competition.

NFL Draft 2020 Betting

April 17, 2020 by Carlo.Scappaticci

We’re only a couple of days away now from the 2020 NFL Draft that will be held virtually. Rather than fans, teams, and next year’s rookie class making the trip to Las Vegas for the draft, each player will have their reaction live streamed from their living room surrounded by their families.

This is always a great night for fans and players but it has taken on added importance this year. Given the current situation, this could be the biggest sporting event of the year and will definitely be the most watched sporting event of April 2020.

With that in mind, we have taken a look at all of the potential 1st Round picks and where you should be betting on next week.

[Read more…]

Super Bowl Betting – The Impact of Tom Brady’s Move

March 20, 2020 by Carlo.Scappaticci

Tom Brady joins the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

How did we get to this point? Many are speculating it is all because of the 2017 trade that seen Jimmy Garoppolo go to the San Francisco 49ers. All this is fuelled by the rumour mill which claimed that Bill Belichick needed to trade a quarterback and chose Brady before being shut down by Kraft. Even with this speculation and rumours both Brady and Belichick are among the most experienced people in the game and it is extremely doubtful that it has led on to Brady leaving New England.

It is more likely that Tom Brady is feeling a little past his prime and is just taking a step down from a top NFL side to more of an underdog team. Let’s not forget the huge payday which will come alongside his 2-year deal with Tampa. It is estimated by NFL Network that the deal is around $30 million USD a year. It is almost a full $10 million more than what he was earning at the Patriots.

Tom Brady has been known to accept contracts under market value for a player of his stature so that the team could build a better roster. It is estimated that he has sacrificed between $60-$100 million. Many people across America would be willing to sacrifice that for 6 Superbowl rings and being called the greatest to ever play.

Always in conversations about being the best of all time what will the 42-year-old bring to the Buccaneers? After his sparkling 20-year career with the Patriots what has the future Hall of Famer left to give?

The Impact of Tom Brady

After signing a 2-year deal with Tampa we are going to see some big changes for them in the NFL. They are already discussing the fact that more free agents want to sign for Tampa Bay since the announcement that they were signing Brady. Even after last season not being near his best ranking outside of the top 10 quarterbacks for the year, we know that Tom Brady has a lot in his locker.

Season tickets for the Buccaneers had thousands of people in line on Tuesday after it was announced that Brady was expected to join the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay ranked 30th in the NFL last season in attendance. It is a guarantee that won’t be the case this season with a superstar joining their ranks. The mix of attention and prestige of having Tom Brady will see the Florida franchise be expecting a much higher finish to the coming season.

The Patriots odds on winning the Superbowl 2021 have gone from +1200 to +1600 since Brady left. His impact on the Buccaneers has been much more significant. Tampa Bay were +50000 to win next year’s Superbowl just last week with CanPlay. As soon as Brady announced his signing their odds have dropped significantly to be even with New England at +1600. The most shocking fact around this is that the Buccaneers haven’t made the playoffs since 2007.

Only time will tell if Tom Brady can lead the Buccaneers to glory, but his sheer competitiveness and attitude will certainly push them in the right direction to make their way to the playoffs. Depending on how the rest of the trade goes we could see the odds for the Buccaneers go down even further so if you have faith in the future Hall of Famer back Tampa Bay here at Canplay.

 

Super Bowl LIV Betting Preview

January 29, 2020 by Carlo.Scappaticci

Super Bowl LIV

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

Sunday 2nd February 6:30PM

This is it – the greatest night in your sporting calendar.

[Read more…]

NFL Conference Championship Previews

January 16, 2020 by Carlo.Scappaticci

There’s a bit of a false claim that circles professional sport – that nobody ever remembers the losers from a final.

That’s not true, nor is losing a final the cruelest fate in any sport.

The AFC and NFC title games are this weekend, and I can assure you there’s nothing worse than losing out here and never even getting the chance to hoist the Vince Lombardi trophy.

Yes, watching your opposition win it all at your expense is a tough pill to swallow but to not take part in the biggest sporting showcase in the world is tougher to come to terms with than wondering what went wrong on the day.

Two teams are going to feel that pain this week – but who?

[Read more…]

NFL Divisional Round Betting Preview

January 8, 2020 by Carlo.Scappaticci

So, the New England Patriots aren’t in the final eight and there’s something both uncertain and gorgeously comforting about that.

But for the first time in two decades, it’s time for us all to stop thinking about that cursed franchise and focus on the new-age NFL success stories.

The starring cast consists of Kyle Shanahan, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and.. Ryan Tannehill?

If you thought last week’s drama was something – and it was – wait until you see what the Divisional Round has in store for you, folks.

[Read more…]

NFL Wildcard Round Betting Preview

January 2, 2020 by Carlo.Scappaticci

The fun and the games are over – the serious business is underway. The NFL playoffs give us the 12 teams who can beat each other: to this point, the teams who have shown enough variation in scheme and play-calling as well as enough belief in analytics, will now face off, knowing one more loss ends the road for them.

These next three weeks are a road to Super Bowl LIV, and only two sides will be making the flight to Miami to contest it. That all starts with the Wild Card round, where the so-called top-end teams can sit on their couches and study tape on their potential opponents.

But some will tell you they value the momentum more than the rehab. Who’s going to hit next week like a steam train? Let’s find out.

[Read more…]

NFL Week 17 Betting Preview

December 27, 2019 by Carlo.Scappaticci

Week 17 is the most difficult week to land some big bets in the entire NFL season. The primary reason for this because it’s hard to analyse just how motivated the teams are.

On one hand, you have the likes of the Baltimore Ravens who are guaranteed home-field advantage through the playoffs now, while the likes of the Los Angeles Chargers have zero motivation to go to Kansas City and win, given they could lose out on a potential replacement for Philip Rivers.

As Walter White once famously said to his brother-in-law Hank Schrader in Breaking Bad, it’s perhaps best practice to ‘tread lightly’ in the final week of the NFL regular season.

[Read more…]

NFL Week 16 Preview

December 18, 2019 by Carlo.Scappaticci

Week 16 – everyone’s biggest fear.

That’s largely due to the fact that you’re either playing meaningful football or you’re not and players pre-game aren’t even sure which to be more nervous about.

On one hand, it’s important to be contending at this time of year, but on the other hand, the nerves leading into a game that matters can be exceptionally tense and cause inexplicable dips in form.

You need to be aware of these perms when betting on Week 16, because nothing is truly as it seems. My suggestion? Focus more on coaching than on the individual players.

This is the week you see aggressive coaches lose their strut and go conservative.

[Read more…]

NFL Week 15 Preview

December 11, 2019 by Carlo.Scappaticci

You probably thought a week was a long time in the NFL as your favourite fluctuates between good and well, not so good.

But the New England Patriots found out last week that a mere hour is long enough in the National Football League.

Fresh off the back of a heartbreaking loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in which they can feel exceptionally aggrieved for the officiating they encountered, they were thrust into chaos once again for all the wrong reasons.

As their ill-thoughts of the league were in full swing, they would be slapped on the wrist for filming the Cincinnati Bengals sideline, featuring their coaching signals.

You just can’t help yourselves, can you New England? Let’s see what sweet ironies await us in week 15.

[Read more…]

NFL Week 14 Preview

December 3, 2019 by Carlo.Scappaticci

December, or as I call it, the month where I get to blissfully laugh at the New England Patriots, before strolling into work like Homer Simpsons warning of the rapture, declaring how there isn’t a hope in hell that New England are winning the Super Bowl this year.

The tradition almost supersedes the conviction at this point. It’s become a hobby, pastime and tradition all in one, and if I didn’t do it, it’s almost people would suspect that something is wrong.

But as I know well, I’ll be sat, drunk, in a bar at 4.30am come February as Tom Brady stands in front of me, in 4k definition, hoisting yet another Championship while I fall asleep into my pint.

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to week 14.

[Read more…]

NFL: Thanksgiving Day Betting Preview

November 27, 2019 by Carlo.Scappaticci

Unless you’re a turkey or someone who gets nervous by drunken relatives, Thanksgiving is your favourite time of year as an NFL fan.

There’s many elements that make it unique – the oversized poultry; the cranberry sauce; the stuffing that contains countless essences of things you won’t question; quality family time with those close to you; fond reflection on life’s positives; lying on the couch after overindulgence on all of the above – and perhaps even more important than the sum of all of the above – three NFL games on a Thursday.

Some things you need to be thankful for more than others – that’s all I’m saying.

[Read more…]

NFL: Week 12 Betting Preview

November 18, 2019 by Carlo.Scappaticci

There was a very brief spell on Sunday night where the collective NFL fanbase sat up slightly straighter in their usual Redzone-worn armchairs.

Tom Brady was struggling to throw the ball to anyone. He was resorting to dunk-offs and lacked velocity, spiral and trademark trajectory.

It’s been fifteen years since anyone, especially AFC team-supporting fans could dream of landing in a Super Bowl without having to face the Patriots in a bitterly-cold Foxboro only to be sent packing after a first quarter blitz that destroyed your soul.

But then Julian Edelman threw a touchdown pass and we were back to square one.

Let’s see what other false hope we can be handed in Week 12. Joy.

[Read more…]

NFL: Week 11 Betting Preview

November 13, 2019 by Carlo.Scappaticci

You can achieve a lot in ten weeks. It’s two and a half months. It’s 0.25% of the average male’s lifetime.

Think about what you were doing this day, ten weeks ago – and it seems like an age ago, doesn’t it? That’s how long it took for a decent game of football this season.

The Seahawks and the Niners went at it on Monday Night Football, resulting in a last-second field goal to steal it from Kyle Shanahan and co.

And all was right with the league again – even Colin Kaepernick has a tryout this weekend. Perhaps things are looking up.

Let’s approach Week 11 with some optimism and try nab some cash.

[Read more…]

NFL: Week 10 Betting Preview

November 7, 2019 by Carlo.Scappaticci

There have been some truly remarkable shocks in world sport to this point – the Undertaker losing to Brock Lesnar at Wrestlemania 30, the Arsenal invincibles’ 49-game unbeaten run and Phil Mickelson falling out of the Top 50 for the first time in his career.

But nothing compared to the beatdown taken by the then 8-0 New England Patriots in Baltimore last week. My goodness.

Brady, with Mohamed Sanu in tow, rocked up to Maryland, expecting to steamroll yet another inexperienced quarterback – but they were sent back to Foxboro with their legs between their tails in despair.

It’s going to take an absolute masterstroke on defence to slow down Jackson and co. Perhaps Week 10 can give us some insight into just who that might be.

[Read more…]

NFL: Week 9 Betting Preview

October 31, 2019 by Carlo.Scappaticci

We’re halfway through the NFL season and there’s always one main storyline to take out of this – that one three-win team is probably making the postseason.

Usually by Week 9, we can tell who that is. Right now, the some the likely contenders include the Chargers, Raiders, Steelers, Lions and Bears.

That’s a lot of real quality that’s going to miss out on the postseason, but which one of them will make the leap in the second half of the season to reconfirm the storyline that gets brought up every single year?

Well, there’s only one way to find out.

[Read more…]

NFL: Week 8 Betting Preview

October 23, 2019 by Carlo.Scappaticci

Let me tell you a little story about a franchise called the Los Angeles Chargers. Perhaps more important than the actual outcome of the Super Bowl is the emotional support given to the fans of the Bolts, as they frequently find incredible ways to win.

This week may mark the midway point of this particular NFL season, but it feels like the Chargers are in one continuous cycle of pain when it comes to results.

They found yet another way to lose this week – fumbling on the one-yard line when it looked for everything that they were going to run out winners.

Ah, the NFL.

[Read more…]

NFL: Week 7 Betting Preview

October 14, 2019 by Carlo.Scappaticci

There aren’t too many things I love more than this sport.

But there was a brief moment on Sunday evening where I contemplated walking away from it. No, this isn’t an Andrew Luck memoir, this was me, on my sofa, watching Miami and Washington.

While that alone would have been enough for me to lose faith, it was due to a particular passage of play, more specifically.

Ryan Fitzpatrick had just thrown a touchdown pass with six seconds remaining. I had no doubt that, given momentum, Miami were an extra point away from an eventual overtime win.

See, I’m addicted to logic. The world needs to make sense. For once, I thought that was beyond me briefly. Until Brian Flores went for two and threw a flanker screen.

Phew. Now for Week 7. [Read more…]

NFL: Week 6 Betting Preview

October 9, 2019 by Carlo.Scappaticci

The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in football, while Kyle Allen looks set to become a bigger star than Cam Newton.

Five weeks is a long time, but it’s a very long time in football. It’s also particularly relevant to the playoff hunt for one very specific reason – only one team has ever gone 0-4 and made the playoffs.

If you’ve gone 0-5 – I’m looking at you Washington and Miami – then I’m afraid you’re already looking ahead to the draft.

[Read more…]

NFL Week 5 Betting Preview

October 3, 2019 by Carlo.Scappaticci

When Andrew Luck opened the NFL season a couple of weeks early to announce his retirement, it was mainly met with appreciation of someone’s intellectual prioritisation of money and health.
There were some naysayers, namely a band of Indy fans who felt the terms of the departure were unfair. Luck’s struggles were largely unseen by the majority and nobody knows the depth of his struggles.

[Read more…]

NFL: Week 4 Betting Preview

September 25, 2019 by Carlo.Scappaticci

Week Four is an important week.

It generally is the time of the season where the middle separates. The better teams vault towards contention, while the lesser teams show their colors.

If you’re a fan of a team on the bubble, your Monday is going to feel significantly different to that of your colleagues if things go wrong from here.

My take is usually to back the high-quality teams to cover in week four as it’s circled by coaches every single year.

With that in mind, let’s find some spreads to back. [Read more…]

NFL: Week 3 Betting Selections

September 17, 2019 by Carlo.Scappaticci

As Bob Dylan once famously sang, the quarterbacks, they are a-changin’. I think.

What once was is no more and the league is moving on. This week’s selections are all headed by quarterbacks under the age of 27 and for good reason.

This is mere coincidence of course, as the reasons for these selections is far more articulate, I promise.

Tennessee (-1.5) @ Jacksonville: -112

Thursday 19th September, 8:20PM 

These early lines can be funny. I don’t really understand how Tennessee can be three-point favourites to turn over Indianapolis, then be single-point favourites to beat Jacksonville.

Now, there’s the six point swing that you allow for home/road disparity, but even then, the point-and-a-half between the Jags and Colts seems farcical.

The way in which Tennessee lost last week can easily concern, and I understand where it comes from, but Henry does his best work outside the tackles, and this is where Jacksonville can be caught out.

While the Titans are weak in pass protection right now, they’ll benefit from a Jags defence that’s got to be wary of the run-option with Mariota. There’s little to no safety help you need to be afraid of, and Myles Jack has lost a step from this time last year.

Tennessee leave Florida with the win.

BET: Tennessee Titans (-1.5) @ -112

Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco (-6.5): -108

Sunday 21st September, 4:25PM

The 49ers are the surprise of the season thus far. Well, the good surprise anyway.

Their defence is a top-six unit, they’ve got a young, gifted quarterback who’s not chasing a contract and they’re now playing at home in September.

A cross-country flight is a good enough reason to hand a team a four-point advantage in my book, especially an east coast team coming to California.

But the heat will be a factor here, as will the fact the entire Steelers offence is based around Ben’s audibles and weird knack of throwing balls in areas you would never design.

Mason Rudolph isn’t filling boots, he’s filling craters. And he’s about to be found out by a rabid group in Santa Clara.

BET: San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) @ -108

Baltimore @ Kansas City (-7): -105

Sunday 21st September, 1PM

This is the one that most people will scoff at.

But the point remains – there isn’t a single throw that Mahomes can’t make, and that the strength of this Ravens defence is in their heavy personnel. Keeping them in base defence or going up against 12 personnel is not going to benefit you.

However, if you test their cornerback depth, they’ll give up points.

This is why personnel groupings need to be analysed more and more as teams grow into their schemes. Predictability is what kills you and the Chiefs’ offensive playbook has more niche plays than any other in football.

Baltimore’s does not, and the one thing that Lamar Jackson hasn’t faced yet is an interior pass rush. There is no better AFC interior defender than the animal that is Chris Jones.

Once they play contain on the back-end, the Ravens simply don’t have the talent at receiver to get separation.

A touchdown in the difference is slightly underestimating this Chiefs unit and I’m happy to be on board.

BET: Kansas City Chiefs (-7) @ -105

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